The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 24th Presidential Summit in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, from July 3 to 4, 2024. The summit brought together heads of state from member countries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was notably absent.
The summit was held amid several concurrent international and regional developments, influencing its agenda and deliberations, as outlined below:
Key Takeaways
1. Wide participation of leaders and presidents:
The host country’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, attended the summit along with a large number of leaders, including Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
2. Call to strengthen dialogue and expand membership:
The summit aimed to enhance multilateral dialogue and strive for sustainable peace and prosperity. Discussions focused on key areas of cooperation, development prospects, security, and strengthening partnerships among member states.
Several documents were scheduled for discussion during the summit, including a proposal from the Council of Foreign Ministers on developing the organization. This proposal includes measures to improve the activities of permanent bodies, realign interaction with dialogue partners and observers, and bolster efforts to address challenges and threats. Additionally, the inclusion of Belarus as a full member of the organization was also discussed.
Afghanistan's membership in the SCO was also on the summit's agenda. Currently, Afghanistan holds observer status, but due to the Taliban government's lack of international recognition, the latter did not participate in the meetings. However, on the eve of the Astana summit, the Taliban was removed from the list of terrorist organizations, with Russia expected to follow suit soon.
3. Dominance of disputes among member states:
Disputes between SCO members, particularly Chinese-Indian, and Indian-Pakistani tensions, overshadowed the summit's dynamics. In 2023, the summit was held virtually in India to avoid hosting President Xi on Indian soil. During the current summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not attend, and was represented by his foreign minister instead. The latter and his Chinese counterpart stressed the importance of doubling efforts to achieve a full withdrawal of forces and restore peace and calm along their borderlines to normalize relations between the two countries. They agreed to enhance efforts through diplomatic and military channels to resolve outstanding issues.
Chinese President Xi urged his counterparts to resist external interference, calling for strengthening unity within the organization. He also appealed to member states to exert more efforts to address the real challenge of intervention by solving problems through cooperation.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar conveyed India's concerns regarding the actions of both China and Pakistan, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the organization's principles of respecting sovereignty and independence of states, non-interference, and the non-use of force or threat thereof. He also prioritized combating terrorism and called for zero-tolerance for countries harboring and supporting terrorism.
Outcomes of the Summit
The presidential summit concluded with several decisions, as well as approval of the principles adopted by the SCO members in the final statement. The most notable outcomes include:
1. Approval of strategic documents:
The summit approved approximately 25 strategic documents focusing on pivotal issues such as energy, security, trade, finance, and information security. The Astana Declaration on the Global Unity Initiative for Just Peace, Harmony, and Development was also approved, along with the Development Strategy until 2035. This strategy redefines the collective contributions of member states and approves cooperation programs to combat terrorism and extremism for the period from 2025 to 2027. It also includes a five-year drug control strategy, the Economic Development Strategy Action Plan until 2030, and energy cooperation strategies until 2030.
Additionally, attending countries committed to signing a memorandum of understanding to establish the Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre for combating the illicit trafficking of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances, and their precursors. Other initiatives included the establishment of an association for investors; programs for developing financing mechanisms for projects related to cooperation in protected areas and eco-tourism; and the signing of principles of good neighborliness, trust, and partnership. Signatories also committed to effective waste management, ensuring safe drinking water and sanitation, resuming the activities of the investment working group, and advancing settlements in national currencies. The final statement also called for the demilitarization of space and compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty and treaties banning weapons of mass destruction, biological, and toxin weapons.
2. Global governance and multilateralism:
In the summit's final statement and the Astana Declaration, member states highlighted the importance of building a more representative, fair, and multipolar global system. They emphasized that cooperation within the organization could form the basis for an equal and balanced security structure in Eurasia and the world, reaffirming principles of peaceful dispute resolution, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, and respecting the right of countries to independently choose their development paths.
3. Belarus's membership:
Belarus was approved to join as the tenth member of the organization after completing all necessary procedures.
4. Gaza and Ukraine Wars:
The organization condemned unilateral sanctions on countries, noting that such measures undermine global trade. It also condemned the ongoing fighting in Gaza, which has resulted in an elevated toll of civilian casualties, and called for a ceasefire.
5. Transition of the presidency to China:
It was agreed that China would take over the organization's rotating presidency until 2025, seven years after its first presidency.
6. Future conferences:
Plans were announced to hold a high-level joint conference with the United Nations on combating terrorism in November in Kuwait. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry invited all member states, including India, to a conference for heads of government in Islamabad in October. The UN Secretary-General called for the reform of global governance institutions, especially the Security Council, and urged the adoption of a new global agenda reflecting current priorities and developments at the Future Summit in September in New York.
Indications and Potential Implications
The dynamics and outcomes of the SCO summit suggest several implications, including:
1. Kazakhstan's gains:
The summit and its outcomes represent the culmination of Kazakhstan's efforts during its presidency of the SCO which began in July 2023. These efforts have enhanced the organization's role and status, expanded its membership, and broadened cooperation among member states in various fields amid escalating geopolitical tensions and complex regional and international conflicts. Kazakhstan views its efforts as a reflection of its balanced foreign policy, striving to develop a common approach to security issues, promote trade and economic cooperation, protect the environment, strengthen friendships among peoples, and enhance dialogue and diplomatic solutions to reduce tensions.
2. Potential SCO expansion:
Turkey's participation in the SCO summit reflects Ankara's desire to join the organization as a full member rather than just a dialogue partner, aiming to deepen its relations with both the West, Russia, and China.
3. Enduring tensions:
Internal conflicts remain a significant threat to the organization's cohesion. This was evident from India's implicit criticism of China and Pakistan over growing Sino-Russian relations, which it views as a threat to its interests. Consequently, Prime Minister Modi announced an imminent visit to Moscow following the summit.
4. Embarrassing the West and weakening the isolation of Russia and its allies:
The continued development of relations between Russia and regional countries, alongside Belarus's full membership in the organization, indicates a politically significant move amid the ongoing confrontations between the West, Russia, and Belarus over the Ukraine crisis.
Additionally, in a meeting with President Xi on the sidelines of the summit, President Putin hailed relations between Russia and China, saying they were "at their best period in history,” enhancing global stability. Putin also hailed the SCO for “firmly establishing itself as one of the key pillars of a fair, multipolar world order.”
5. Eurasia at the center of confrontations:
The increasing Russian and Chinese focus on Eurasia reflects their desire to minimize US and Western influence in the region. India's influence also appears to have waned, as evidenced by the virtual format of last year's presidential summit and its reduced participation in the current summit, aligning with China's call to limit external intervention in the region.
This focus also aligns with aspirations for the SCO tocounterbalance Western alliances such as NATO. However, internal disagreements and conflicts among SCO member states may limit these aspirations and negatively impact the organization's effectiveness and regional importance. The primary internal conflict involves the struggle for influence in Eurasia between China and Russia. China aims to deepen its commercial interests through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor Project (the Trans-Caspian International Transport RouteTITR), Turkey’s trade route from Southeast Asia and China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, which was evident from the Chinese president’s tour to Central Asia following the summit, while Russia seeks to restore its traditional areas of influence.
In conclusion, the SCO remains a key player with growing regional and global importance. However, its future and cohesion are uncertain. The latter depends on whether it can transform into a platform genuinely opposing the West and whether it can offset NATO’s influence. These aspirations hinge on the organization's ability to achieve mutual coordination and prevent further internal conflicts from undermining its goals.
